Tuesday, May 17, 2005

Managing China

A propósito do texto de Robert Kagan "The Illusion of Managing China", bem destacado pelo Sinédrio,

"Yes, the Chinese want the prosperity that comes from integration in the global economy, but might they believe, as the Japanese did a century ago, that the purpose of getting rich is not to join the international system but to change it?"

O "Chinese Defence White Paper" refere que

The relations among the major powers are undergoing significant and profound readjustments; various kinds of partnerships are gradually developing along the line of institutionalization; and each country is enhancing its consciousness of independence, unity for strength, and coordinated development. (…) The sustained development of the multipolarity tendency and economic globalization has further deepened their mutual reliance and mutual condition and helped toward world peace, stability and prosperity. The factors for safeguarding world peace are growing constantly.

Yong Deng em "Escaping from peryphery, China's National Identity in World Politics" salienta que

"the prevailing security dilemma has led Beijing to view international institutions from a realpolitik perspective without basing its participation upon an embrace of generalized liberal principles of conduct entailed in multilateralism."

E seguindo a lógica da transição de poder de A.F.K. Organski - "power transition theory", poderemos ter razões para considerar que na altura em que houver uma situação próxima da paridade entre o poder hegemónico e o que o desafia, a probabilidade de haver um conflito é elevada. No entanto será importante lembrar, por um lado, os avanços da China no engagement com as organizações multilaterais, como é o caso da OMC, por outro, lembrar que nem sempre a transição de poder gerou guerra (apesar disso ter acontecido em muitas situações ao longod a história). Perante esta bifurcação, Zhiqun Zhu alerta que "punishing China unilaterally will only create a dissatisfied China; incorporating China into the multilateral international arena where China's own intererts hinge on abiding by inernational rules will more likelly make China a satisfied power".

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